Australia Banks Face Housing Credit Slowdown
Australia Banks Face Housing Credit Slowdown
Australia's banks will have to contend with a halving in the pace of housing credit growth as property investors respond to tax changes, Macquarie analysts say.
They think that annual housing credit growth will slow from 7% currently to about 3.5% over 2027. They tell clients in a note that new lending flows will fall by about 30%, contributing to a 5% fall in housing prices.
They add that the impact on property prices will be modest unless there is a material increase in net supply from forced sales or a large rise in new dwellings.
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ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
ANZ has a large housing loan portfolio, so the slowdown in credit growth will directly reduce its income.
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA
CBA is Australia's largest mortgage lender, so it will be one of the most affected by the contraction in loan volumes.
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED
NAB also has a significant mortgage portfolio, but its diversification into business lending may slightly mitigate the impact.
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION
Westpac's heavy reliance on housing loans means it will be negatively impacted by the credit growth slowdown.
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