Bank of Mexico Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast After Weak 1Q
Bank of Mexico Cuts 2026 Economic Growth Forecast After Weak 1Q
The Bank of Mexico lowered its economic growth forecast for 2026 following a weaker-than-expected first quarter. The review of the USMCA and the Middle East conflict add uncertainty to the outlook.
Revised Growth Projections
The central bank now expects GDP to expand 1.1% in 2026, down from 1.6%. For 2027, the forecast was nudged up to 2.1% from 2%. First-quarter GDP contracted 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.
Uncertainties and Risks
Investment is expected to remain weak at least until the second half of 2026 due to USMCA review and Middle East tensions. The bank cut its benchmark rate to 6.5% and signaled an end to the easing cycle.
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