Bank of Mexico Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast After Weak Q1
Bank of Mexico Cuts 2026 Economic Growth Forecast After Weak 1Q
The Bank of Mexico lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.1% from 1.6%, citing a weaker-than-expected first quarter and uncertainties surrounding the USMCA review and Middle East conflict.
Growth Forecast Revision
In its quarterly report, the central bank said GDP contracted 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in seasonally adjusted terms in Q1, and rose 0.2% year-on-year. For 2025, GDP grew 0.5%.
The bank expects investment to remain weak at least until the second half of 2026 due to USMCA uncertainty, while the Middle East conflict adds further downside risks. The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.5% in May, signaling an end to the easing cycle.
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