Morning Bid: Iran Deal Expectations Shake Markets

Author: Ceren Kaya

Strait of Hormuz Breakthrough Hopes Boost Markets

Hopes for a deal to end the Iran conflict pushed Asian stocks to record highs while oil prices and the U.S. dollar fell. Tokyo and Taipei markets surged, fueled by risk-on sentiment.

Trump’s Cautious Remarks Weigh on Optimism

President Trump dampened the mood by urging his team not to rush a deal with Iran, despite mounting pressure. With UK and US markets closed for holidays, liquidity is expected to remain thin.

Energy Supply and Inflation Concerns Persist

Even as two LNG tankers exit the Strait of Hormuz and a stranded supertanker finally sails out, analysts warn that oil prices won't return to pre-war levels soon. Supply chain recovery will take time, keeping inflation and the case for higher-for-longer rates alive.

Rate-Hike Pricing Flips

Before the war, markets expected two rate cuts this year. Now, a 25-basis-point hike is fully priced for January 2027, underscoring how geopolitical shocks can rapidly reshape monetary policy outlooks.

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Morning Bid: Iran Deal Expectations Shake Markets - FiNews