Paxton's Big Win in Texas Could Backfire on Trump

Paxton's Victory Carries Risks for Trump

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton decisively defeated longtime Senator John Cornyn in Tuesday's Republican runoff, handing President Donald Trump a high-profile victory. However, this win could endanger Republicans' narrow Senate majority.

Cornyn Now a Wild Card

Trump's late endorsement of Paxton put him at odds with Senate Republican Leader John Thune and Senator Tim Scott. Unburdened by another reelection campaign, Cornyn could become a free agent for the remainder of his term.

Paxton Has a Money Problem

Paxton's campaign had only $2.3 million in the bank, while his opponent James Talarico had $9.9 million. This could force Republicans to divert resources from key battleground states.

Texas Becoming More Competitive

Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the Texas Senate race from 'likely Republican' to 'lean Republican.' Paxton's weak candidacy means Republicans will have to spend millions to hold what was once a safe seat.

Other Senate Battlegrounds at Risk

Democrats are defending Georgia and Michigan, which Trump won in 2024, and targeting Republican-held states like North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska. Paxton's nomination may force Republicans to divert resources from these races.

Paxton Won a Low-Turnout Race

Paxton won fewer than 900,000 votes in a low-turnout runoff. The general election electorate will be dramatically different, and Talarico will court independents and moderate Republicans.