Yuan Slips as US-Iran Tensions Cloud Peace Deal Outlook

Author: Ethan Smith

Yuan Weakens as US-Iran Tensions Dampen Peace Hopes

China's yuan eased against the dollar on Thursday after fresh U.S. military strikes in the Middle East dampened investor confidence in an imminent peace deal with Iran. The spot yuan opened at 6.7781 and last traded at 6.7828, down 35 pips from the previous close.

Markets Cautious on Iran Peace Deal

UBS analysts noted that markets are navigating a high-conviction macro theme with low-conviction execution, as every headline moves energy, rates, equities, and emerging markets in lockstep. The dollar index traded in a narrow range between 98.9 and 99.5, reflecting the stop-start nature of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.

The onshore yuan has gained 3% year-to-date and is expected to maintain its gradual appreciation trend, supported by persistent dollar selling from exporters. The People's Bank of China set the midpoint rate at 6.8240 per dollar, its strongest since February 2023, signaling a desire for market stability.

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